Science - bassmetrics

Analysis of TDSL league tables


Analysis by Ron Jenkins of data for the 2004/05 season demonstrated that league results are well described by Poisson statistics. The implication is that the outcome of each game is finely balanced and equivalent to the toss of a coin. Therefore, the team that can gain an edge consistently will stand a very good chance of topping the league.

In 2007/08 Ron was delighted to receive funding from the SRC (Skittles Research Council) to complete his investigation into coin tossing as a legitimate, and more efficient, method of deciding the outcome of a match. If adopted, the principal benefits would be a substantial reduction in stress and focussing of attention on the social dimensions of skittling. SRC clearance for publication has been received and the results and recommendations for implementing the 'Jenkins Rule' are reported in the attached paper.

Needless to say there is some way to go before The Geordies are reborn as The Tossers.

Ron's most recent work (see paper) has established that a moderately robust indication for promotion and relegation prospects can be made from a performance figure (points per game average) otherwise known as a RON (Realizable Outcome Number). For examples a RON of 0.75 or greater will on average avoid relegation; a value greater than 1.3 will on average achieve promotion.